Today we have published our final results from the School Census which was undertaken in January 2023. These final results include revised data on pupils eligible for free school meals. We explain in this blog why it has been necessary to undertake additional validation of this data and to revise the information previously published.
Darllenwch y dudalen hon yn Cymraeg.
What was the issue with data on pupils eligible for free school meals?
Every year we ask for data about pupils in schools through the Pupil Level Annual School Census (known as PLASC). Provisional headline results from the January 2023 School Census in Wales were originally published on 25 May 2023. This included data on pupils eligible for free school meals. This data, along with all the other data captured in the School Census, had been agreed with schools and local authorities (LAs) and also validated as part of the annual exercise in preparation for the Welsh Local Government Finance Settlement.
In January 2023 pupils in Wales could be eligible for free school meals in three ways:
- through receiving Universal Credit or certain legacy benefits (we refer to these as FSM)
- via the Transitional Protection programme (TP)
- via the Universal primary free school meal scheme (UPFSM)
Having published the provisional data we proceeded to analyse the data relating to pupils eligible for free school meals in more depth as part of our normal annual programme of work.
This work raised two specific concerns as to the quality of the data:
- there were large variations between individual schools and LAs in the balance between FSM and TP pupils
- some schools were indicating that 100% of pupils in certain year groups were FSM when some of them should have been coded as UPFSM
To address these two issues we undertook an additional validation exercise asking local authorities and schools to re-examine their free school meals data.
What did we find as a result of the additional validation?
The result of this additional validation showed that some pupils who were only receiving free school meals due to TP or through the UPFSM had been incorrectly recorded as being eligible for free school meals via the means-tested criteria (pupils whose parents or guardians are in receipt of Universal Credit or certain means-tested benefits or support payments, see Free school meals: information for parents and carers).
Table 1: Percentage of pupils aged 5 to 15 known to be eligible for free school meals (FSM) or transitionally protected (TP), January 2023
| Measure | Original | Revised |
| Eligible for FSM | 23.9 | 22.2 |
| TP only | 4.9 | 6.5 |
| Eligible for FSM or TP | 28.8 | 28.7 |
| TP as a % of those eligible for FSM or TP | 17.1 | 22.7 |
Table 1 shows a large fall in the percentage of pupils eligible for FSM via the means-tested criteria only and a large increase in those that are eligible through TP only. The percentage of pupils aged 5 to 15 who were known to be eligible for free school meals at January 2023 through the means-tested criteria was revised down from 23.9% to 22.2%. The overall percentage eligible for free school meals through eligibility for means-tested benefits (FSM) or TP is stable.
Figure 1: Percentage of pupils aged 5 to 15 known to be eligible for free school meals (FSM) or transitionally protected (TP), 2018 to 2023
Description of Figure 1: A line chart showing trends in the percentage of FSM and TP pupils in Wales since 2018. The chart shows that both FSM and TP were rising up to 2022 but in 2023 there has been a fall in FSM and a sharper rise in TP as a result of this additional validation work.
Why did this happen?
A number of changes have taken place relating to free school meals over the last 4 years, in addition to the impact that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic may have had.
On 1 April 2019 we introduced a new Transitional Protection policy for free school meals. This was brought in to ensure that pupils have their free school meals protected during the Universal Credit rollout period. This protection applies to individual pupils and will continue until the end of their current schools phase, being the end of primary school or end of secondary school. Any pupil that was eligible for free school meals on the introduction of the policy on 1 April 2019 should also be transitionally protected. In addition, any pupil that has become eligible at any point during the Universal Credit rollout under the new eligibility criteria should also be transitionally protected.
The rollout of the universal primary free school meal scheme began in September 2022 with all LAs delivering free school meals to Reception aged children from the start of the autumn term (September 2022) and most LAs extending the offer to years 1 and 2 no later than the start of the summer term (April 2023).
There are currently three different schemes under which pupils can be eligible for free school meals compared to a single scheme prior to 2020.
In order for LAs in Wales to record whether pupils are eligible as a result of the household being eligible for means-tested benefits they have access to an automated FSM eligibility checking system (ECS) that uses data from the Department for Work and Pensions, HMRC and the Home Office to assess whether a pupil is eligible for FSM.
Feedback from LAs indicates that one reason for these data issues is that eligibility for FSM is not being verified using the ECS as regularly during and following the pandemic than it was before the pandemic. This can lead to the patterns seen in the data where pupils are thought to be eligible for means tested FSM when in reality their family circumstances have changed and they are eligible through the TP arrangements, with the result that pupils are recorded as means tested eligible for longer periods of time.
Another key reason was the challenges our public services faced during the pandemic in maintaining their services. Our schools were closed or only open for certain pupils for long periods of time, details can be found in this published Coronavirus timeline (Senedd Research).
The school censuses in 2020 to 2022 were all affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic as follows:
- the January 2020 census did not undergo the usual final validation process as part of the Welsh Local Government Finance Settlement due to the first national lockdown from March 2020
- the 2021 census was delayed until April 2021 due to the second national lockdown in Spring 2021
- the 2022 census was delayed until February 2022 due to a phased return for pupils following winter 2021
In these circumstances a fall in the quality of the data due to the time and resources available to schools and LAs is not unexpected (and noting in particular that data from 2020 was not validated in the usual way).
What might this mean for the data reported for 2020 to 2022?
The results we found from the validation of 2023 data and the information we gained from schools and LAs about their recording practices calls into question the quality of the reported FSM and TP data for 2020 through to 2022. However, as the data is collected at individual pupil level for pupils on a given date for technical and resource reasons it is not possible to go back and revise the data for 2020 to 2022.
Given these data issues, users may want to consider whether using FSM or a combination of both FSM and TP for the years 2020 or 2022 might be more appropriate.
Why is the quality of data on pupils eligible for free school meals important?
Data on free school meals (only the FSM component) is used widely both within and outside government as a proxy for deprivation or social disadvantage. Unlike many other measures of disadvantage (e.g. Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation), FSM data is available at an individual pupil level and as such can be linked to other information about that individual e.g. school attendance, educational outcomes or health records with the appropriate confidentiality arrangements adhered to.
The main ways we currently use this FSM data are:
- allocation of Pupil Development Grant and School Essentials Grant
- as one proxy for disadvantage within the annual Local Government Finance Settlement
- measuring ‘gaps’ in attainment, outcomes and attendance between pupils from a disadvantaged background and those who are not
- accredited research through the SAIL databank
Securing the quality of the data in the future
To make sure that the FSM, TP and UPFSM data is complete and correct in the January 2024 school census we will be:
- working with LAs to ensure the smooth flow of data between benefit and education departments within the local authority and between local authorities and schools
- encouraging the sharing of best practice in the recording of free school meal eligibility between LAs
- developing additional validation rules to capture any data issues at source so they can be investigated and resolved before the data is submitted to us
Stephanie Howarth
Chief Statistician