Darllenwch y dudalen hon yn Cymraeg.
In September 2023, we published a Chief Statistician’s blog providing advice about the challenges being faced in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) run by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the impact of such challenges on labour market statistics for Wales and what ONS plans were to address the challenges.
Today, following a period in which usual LFS estimates have not been available for Wales, we are highlighting the work that ONS have done to improve LFS estimates. These improvements include reweighting the data to use more up to date population information; restarting face-to-face interviewing in October 2023 (put on hold during the pandemic); and boosting the sample size from January 2024.
Reweighted LFS estimates of labour market measures for Wales
Alongside the Labour Market overview for the 3 months to December 2023 we have published an article which outlines the reweighting exercise that has taken place, which ONS implemented as part of the publication of labour market statistics on 13 February 2024. In the article we explore the indicative impacts on headline labour market estimates for Wales over the last 15 months, and explain how ONS will be making further adjustments to ensure the long-term comparability of these headline series.
The newly published reweighted estimates suggest that over the last five months, employment and unemployment may have fallen more quickly than the experimental indicative indicators (published since November 2023 for Wales) suggested, offset by an increase in the rate of economic inactivity.
Continued uncertainty and interpretation of recent LFS data
This reweighting exercise has improved the representativeness and reduced potential bias in the LFS estimates from the period July to September 2022. ONS also expect to see improvements to response levels and rates because of the reintroduction of face-to-face interviews and the sample boost in October 2023 and January 2024 respectively, which will feed into the published figures over the next few months. However, the ongoing challenges with response rates and levels mean that LFS-based labour market statistics will be labelled as official statistics in development until further review, and we continue to recommend caution when interpreting quarterly changes.
We would recommend using the LFS data alongside the trends in other measures of the labour market, particularly Workforce Jobs (a quarterly measure of jobs), claimant count (the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits) and the RTI data from HMRC (the number of employees on payroll) to gain a clearer picture of the Welsh labour market.
Longer term solution
Whilst ONS plan to continue work to improve LFS-derived estimates, it remains their plan to make the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) the main measure for the UK and Wales labour market. The TLFS is an online-first survey that asks many more people about their employment status. While early returns from this survey look positive, they have indicated that they need a longer consistent time series to aid interpretation before sharing these data with users. ONS plan on publishing indicative TLFS data in July 2024, which will allow users to compare it with LFS responses over a six-month period, with the TLFS becoming our main source of information on the UK labour market from September 2024.
Stephanie Howarth
Chief Statistician